Wednesday, January 11, 2012

RBS 2012 lay offs may effect Hong Kong and Singapore most


Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS), part-nationalised British fat cat,  is expected to announce Britain’s biggest corporate loss of up to £28bn on Thursday and will lay off 5,000 staff globally from its investment banking division. But unlike the previous lay offs which effected Asia the least, this time might be different:

"“We have just heard that most of them will be made redundant here in Asia in Q1 and Q2,” says a headhunter who was told the news by a director at RBS in Hong Kong on Wednesday. The BBC’s business editor has similar thoughts: “much of the pain will be in Asia and North America.”

As the major regional centres, Hong Kong and Singapore are likely to be most affected. But why has Asia now been hit when other banks have focussed their recent international redundancy announcements on Western markets? “With all that has gone on in the last couple of years at RBS, it has already trimmed down Europe and the US to a minimum. Asia can no longer escape,” says the headhunter.

RBS has already cut 30,000 staff since its near collapse in 2008 and as much as 20,000 of them came from UK. As the headhunter above said, there is no much room to cut staff there and this time Asia may not escape.

According to Bloomberg, everyone in cash equities will be cut, and quite possibly everyone in corporate broking and M&A. Lay-offs are likely in the back and middle office as well as the front, adds the headhunter."
Source : Lay-offs loom large as the RBS axe arrives in Asia

Bankers bringing money are safe for now, the cuts will mostly effect "the fat cats on large base salaries who haven’t bought in enough business". The shrinkage of investment banking will take the number of employees in Global Banking and Markets down from around 17,000 at the moment to less than 15,000. I am told that a couple of thousand left at the end of last year, so total job cuts would be around 5,000, including those who have already left.[1]

According to Asianinvestors.net, RBS makes heavy cuts in Asia equities division, has made major lay-offs in institutional and retail equity sales and structuring in the region, and whispers it plans to shut its equities and corporate finance units globally:

"Amid reports that the UK’s RBS will cut 4,000 staff in investment banking globally, the equities division in Asia is seeing deep cuts across Hong Kong, Japan and Singapore, including a raft of institutional salespeople and structurers."

The article gives details about people who has recently left RBS in Hong Kong, Singapore, Japan and China.

As we have written before Singapore and Hong Kong job market trends for 2012 are already not very good and Singapore job outlook looks bleak in 2012.

[1] - Why RBS is shrinking its investment bank

See also Morgan Stanley cuts 10 fixed-income jobs in Singapore, Hong Kong. Further banking lay-offs are expected in Asia.

HDB launched first batch of 2012 flats: 3,923 New Flats in 5 projects


Housing Development Board (HDB) has launched 5 Built-To-Order (BTO)  projects today, offering 3,923 new flats in Choa Chu Kang, Punggol, Sengkang and Tampines. This is the first BTO launch of 2012. In total, HDB plans to offer 25,000 BTO units for the entire year.[1]

These 5 projects are Fernvale Lea in Sengkang, Sunshine Gardens in Choa Chu Kang, Tampines Alcoves and Tampines GreenTerrace in Tampines, and Waterway Sunbeam in Punggol.[1]:

"The selling prices excluding grants for units at Fernvale Lea range from S$83,000 for a 2-room unit to S$283,000 for a 5-room unit. For Sunshine Gardens, the price range is from S$77,000 for Studio Apartments to S$295,000 for a 5-room unit. For units at Tampines Alcoves and Tampines GreenTerrace, the price range is from S$86,000 for Studio Apartments to S$292,000 for a 4-room unit. And at Waterway Sunbeam, it's S$152,000 for a 3-room unit to S$340,000 for a 5-room unit.

These prices are excluding grants."
Source : HDB launches 5 BTO projects

HDB has also announched that the next launch will be in Mar 2012, and it will offer 4,110 new flats for sale in Bedok, Bukit Batok, Bukit Panjang, Bukit Timah, Clementi, Geylang and Toa Payoh.[1]

HDB has offered 25,200 flats in 2011 and is offering 25,000 more units in 25,000 more units. This is nearly 3 time the average yearly rate between 2001 - 2010 period. HDB has also changed its policy of supplying new flats only in new towns and is now supplying new flats in mature towns such as Tampines and Bedok. It is very likely that the flats in Tampines will be oversupplied and many will probably wait the March 2012 offer to try their chances with Bedok flats.

[1] - HDB Launches 5 BTO Projects Offering 3,923 New Flats

Monday, January 9, 2012

Is Singapore home rental market’s future bright?


Some analyst believe that after the December 2011 property cooling measures, "the rental market could brighten for landlords in 2012 as home buyers defer buying units in the wake of the recent cooling measures:

"They believe the larger pool of tenants might stabilise the rental market or even drive a pick up of up to 5 per cent in rents over the next 12 months. These analysts’ comments are a contrast to earlier expectations that rents were set to fall as a large supply of completed units come onto the market this year. Analysts had predicted a possible softening of rents this year due to the new private and public homes that will be completed within the next few months."

I believe it is really early to talk about this kind of good news for landlords (and bad news for tenants) as 2012 will not only see a large supply of completed units, it will probably see a sharp drop in growth of number of foreigners here due to economic slowdown and expected headcount reductions in banking and financial services industry.

Renting a private unit is not for everyone in Singapore. Lowest rental price you would find will be 3,000 - 3,500 SGD per month in a country where average full time pay is 2,700 SGD per month. So if a family is not making more than 6,000 SGD, it is not possible to rent one. 

So, it requires some sort of high paying job to be able to rent a private unit here in Singapore. Unfortunately in late 2011, companies has started to freeze hiring or even started firing people in bulk among ranks of these kind of high paid individuals. In our Singapore job outlook bleak in 2012 we have talked about this, many banks has started firing staff in bulk and many are planning net headcount reduction in 2012.

It will be quite difficult to offset larger supply + less tenants with foreigners who will rent instead of buying a property. Many foreigners effected by additional buyer's stamp duty are probably not residing or planning to reside in Singapore but are just investing in Singapore. 

Sunday, January 8, 2012

Singapore Property News Jan 1 - 8 2012


Here are some news about Singapore property in the first week of year 2012.

Thousands of luxury units launched in 2011 are still unsold
It seems like only the OCR (Outside Central Region) or so-called "mass market" private properties are doing quite well in Singapore while luxury segment is already undersold as of November 2011, even before the Additional Buyer's Stamp Duty (ABSD) introduced to restrict foreigners. With ABSD, 2012 will probably be even difficult for the luxury segment where nearly 50 percent of the demand is, or was, from foreigners.
Source : Singapore Luxury Property Oversupply


Far East Organization has sold 67% of released units at The Hillier in 3 days of launch
The Hillier, a SOHO (Small Office/Home Office) development in Hillview Avenue was launched on the first day of 2012 and by Jan 3rd, 225 of 333 units were sold. Most of the buyers are Singaporeans and Singapore PRs. The project has 528 SOHO units and is 5 minutes walk to upcoming Hillview MRT Station.
Source : Far East starts year with strong demand for The Hillier

Singapore home prices continues to rise
Although the pace of rise is slowing, the prices are still rising. Singapore property market has become a case study for low interest rates fueled asset bubble where the power of low interest rates and resulting artificial home affordability is stronger than any other cooling factors combined; low growth, slower foreign intake and government cooling measures.
Source : Singapore's private home prices continue to moderate

Unintended Consequences of cooling measures in rental market?

Some experts believe that the rental market in Singapore may improve this year, because home buyers are likely to put off purchasing amid the recent cooling measures. If this happens, this will be the second "unintended consequence" of cooling measures. As you may recall, a cooling measure in August 2010 "mandated that resale flat buyers who are private property owners had to dispose of their private homes within six months of purchasing their HDB resale unit. In addition, the Minimum Occupation Period (MOP) of non-subsidised flats was increased from three to five years. This probably made HDB upgraders reluctant to sell their HDB flats because it may be more difficult for them to buy a HDB flat in the future, adding to already severe supply crunch in resale HDB market. Source : Resale HDB flat prices to soften

But this time, any number of foreigners renting instead of buying will probably be offset by huge number of private properties coming to the market while virtually nobody is hiring and some are firing.
Source : Home rental markets future bright

HDB resale flat prices rised 1.7% in Q4 2011
Housing Development Board, HDB, has just released the "Flash Estimate of 4th Quarter 2011 Resale Price Index" and is 190.4 now, an increase of 1.7% over 3rd Quarter 2011. Although the increase is lower than the 3.8% seen in the previous quarter, it is still a significant rise.
Source : HDB resale flat prices rised 1.7% in Q4 2011

Buyers return units for fear of price decline
Some units at major projects released in November and early December 2011 are being returned to their developers, possibly indicating a reflex reaction to the implementation of the additional buyer's stamp duty (ABSD), according to market watchers.
Source : Buyers return units for fear of price decline

Saturday, January 7, 2012

Singapore and Hong Kong job market trends for 2012


Recruitment in Singapore and Hong Kong fell in the second half of 2012 and currently, there seems no reason to not believe that this will be the major trend for jobs market in 2012. While banks are very cautious for hiring, they are planning to reduce existing headcount. On the other hand, less people will be willing to change their position since being a new guy in a company can be quite dangerous in this job environment.

Normally, the months after Chinese New Year are the best times to look for a job since people get their bonuses, have their holidays before Chinese New Year and move to new jobs after it. But this year, even these months may be difficult to secure a new job because of the above reasons.

One particularly worrying trend for Singapore and Hong Kong is off-shoring. Singapore and Hong Kong became very expensive places to do business due to ultra high office rentals, higher salaries required to live in these cities and general increase in every day costs. It seems like financial IT will take a hit in the next few years but even analytical jobs may fly out of Singapore and Hong Kong:

"Off-shoring has been a hot topic in recent years, but I predict it will become even more prevalent in 2012,” says Nick Lambe, managing director, Morgan McKinley Hong Kong. Turbulence in global financial markets has made the majority of organisations extremely in the New Year and as a result, off-shoring will be a part of many firms’ resourcing strategies." 
Although process-orientated functions like IT and operations have traditionally been off-shored, banks will also target analytical jobs this year, such as product control. “This will therefore drive hiring within the project management and change space as banks look to strip out these functions and complete the off-shoring process,” adds Lambe."
Source :  A year to fear? Our five-point preview of the Asian job market in 2012
 Recently, Morgan Stanley has slashed 80 Singapore support staff and offered transfers to India and Hungary. Other banks have back-office relocation on their radars.

Singapore Luxury Property Oversupply


At least 30 already launched projects in Singapore's central districts; district 9, 10 and 11 have still more than half of its units unsold by the end November 2011. 4 projects among these are heavily unsold: For example 1257 units of total 1715 units in D'Leedon in district 10 are unsold (73 per cent). 413 units of 462 units of Twin Peaks, at the site of old Grangeford apartments near Orchard Road, 208 units of 241 units of Hilltops and 200 units of 231 units of The Scott Towers are unsold.[1]

Things will be harder in 2012 for luxury projects in Singapore, which are ridiculously high priced and mostly grapped by foreigners. This is because of new property cooling measures requiring 10% extra stamp duty from foreign buyers, economic uncertainties as well as the financial positions of the developers. They will probably use the ultra low interest rate environment to finance their operations for a while instead of lowering the prices:

"Developers have strong balance sheets after reaping super-normal profits over the past five years. They have enough built-in fat and are hibernating ... Most of these sites are freehold so there is no urgency to launch".[1]

D'Leedon
Some experts believe that they can lease up the units instead of selling them with lower prices. But this will be really difficult in an environment where expat packages are shrinking, banking and financial services industries are cutting jobs in Singapore and economy is growing with a slow pace. It is also very damaging for all developers to hold back since they eventually need to launch the projects and if they all hold back and launch around the same time in a high interest rate environment, it may be even more difficult to sell.

But some experts expect 15 per cent price falls in the luxury segment. According to DTZ, luxury condominium segment has already have a very bad 2011 even before new property cooling measures and prices of these condos have just gone up 1 % in 2010.

If the prices of these units are beaten by nearly 6% inflation, there must also be no reason to force buyers to put their money to luxury property.

[1] - Luxury home market faces oversupply

Wednesday, January 4, 2012

Luxury online shopping in Singapore


Clout Shoppe
Clout Shoppe is recently launched in June 2011 by SingPost as a luxury lifestyle e-commerce portal for online shoppers and claims to provide "hottest, most elite brands and fashion labels at competitive prices". Clout Shoppe has a "time limited" private sales feature for its members where a sales begin at 10am SGT and are time-limited. The online shop also provides exclusive access to brands which are unique or unavailable elsewhere in Singapore:
"With private sales, members have  access to international designer brands such  as Prada, Miu Miu, Fendi, Gucci, Bottega Veneta and Jimmy Choo at extremely competitive prices for a 3 to 4 days window. In addition,  Clout Shoppe carries a selection of  internationally renowned  designer brands exclusively for its members. This includes Maison Takuya, a luxury label famous for its exquisite range of exotic leather  iAccessories which  comes in mainstream  hues and funky colours. Another  exclusive  brand is  LVMH‟s Make  Up For Ever, which has a strong following amongst top international makeup artists and consumers. Aurelio Costarella, a leading Australia Designer label will also be available soon at Clout Shoppe. Aurelio‟s designs have long been admired and worn by international  celebrities gracing the red carpet,  including Rihanna, Eva Mendes, Tina Arena, Naya Rivera, Dannii Minogue and Dita Von Teese."
Clout Shoppe claims Best Price Guarantee, if you can find a lower price in any local authorised boutique or reseller they refund you the price difference in cash, in the same mode of payment you made your purchase in. (See FAQ) Other than Singapore (where shipment is free for above 150 SGD purchases) they also ship to Malaysia, Brunei, Australia, New Zealand, USA, Canada, Taiwan, South Korea, UAE, Indonesia, Hong Kong and China for 29 SGD flat rate.

You can access Clout Shoppe from www.cloutshoppe.com.

Doorstep Luxury - Online Shop for Handbags, Jewellery & Accessories
Doorstep Luxury is a Singapore based company with a well designed premier luxury e-commerce site. But for those in Singapore and want to see the product before buying they also have a boutique shop and studio located in Telok Ayer Road.  and They source hottest emerging designer handbags, high fashion jewellery and accessories directly from their designers and manufacturers and ship them globally from Singapore. Aside from some well known designers, they also source from emerging Asian jewellery and handbag designers.

For orders from Singapore or international orders above $300 shipping is included in the displayed prices. Their online shop can be reached from this address : http://www.doorstepluxury.com/

Tuesday, January 3, 2012

What is Design, Build and Sell Scheme (DBSS)?


Time to time you will encounter this housing type called Design, Build and Sell Scheme (DBSS) in Singapore. What is a Design, Build and Sell Scheme (DBSS) flat? Where are they? Who can buy them? If you wanna know the answers to these questions you are at the right place.


DBSS flats are public housing flats developed by private developer.  DBSS are built with better designs compared to normal HDB flats in mature estates such as Tampines, Ang Mo Kio and Bishan and the private developer will undertake all the entire development from planning, design, and construction, to the sale of the flats directly to eligible buyer.  Developers are flexibility in design as long as the design does not compromise the objectives, fundamentals and characteristics of public housing. For example the design of DBSS need to maintain open access to common properties and DBSS cannot have fencing and facilities such as swimming pool, gymnasium and tennis courts. These flats are still public housing flats with the similar HDB eligibility conditions like other flats developed by HDB.[1] Like other public housing flats, DBSS flats are 99 years lease and Minimum Occupation Period of 5 years is applied before buyer can sell the unit.

DBSS was introduced by the Housing and Development Board in 2005 and the pilot project was The Premiere @ Tampines, composed of eight 17-storey blocks, which was launched in 2006 and completed in 2009 by Sim Lian Land Pte Ltd on  21,000 sq m  land acquired for $82.2 million. The other DBSS projects as of December 2011 are:


In 2011, the sale of land for Design, Build and Sell Scheme (DBSS) projects has been put on hold while the Government carries out a review, said National Development Minister Khaw Boon Wan:

"Mr Khaw made these points on his official Facebook page over the weekend, in response to a member of the public who called for the scheme to be scrapped in the wake of high asking prices at a Tampines project called Centrale 8.

The developer, Sim Lian Group, initially estimated prices at $880,000 for five-room units, later revising them to $778,000 after a public uproar.

Yesterday, the Ministry of National Development (MND) said that pending the results of the review, the Housing Board would not proceed with the sale of a DBSS site in Bendemeer slated for later this month."[2]

[1] - What is Design, Build & Sell Scheme (DBSS) Flats?
[2] - DBSS land sales on hold pending review

Latest HDB Resale Flat Prices


What are the latest HDB resale flat transaction prices in Singapore? What is the price of a resale HDB flat in Singapore? To find answers to these questions you can google the web but you will most probably end up with the asking prices. What really matters are the property transaction prices and there is a place where you can get some general information on these prices.

As we have written back in 2011, Singapore Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) has a e-Service named "Private Residential Property Transactions with Caveats Lodged" where you can check the latest Singapore condo, landed property transaction prices. Housing Development Board (HDB) also provides a similar e-service where you can check past 1-year resale transacted prices. The data provided is based on approved resale applications and is updated on the 1st and 16th of each month. Transacted prices are better indicators for you to estimate the price you will pay since asking prices may have a large greed premium. This e-service enables potential resale flat buyers and sellers to make more informed decisions, "taking into account the prevailing trends in the HDB resale market."

All you need to do is to enter the flat type (1 room, 2 room, 3 room, 4 room, 5 room, Executive, HDUC or Multi Generation), HDB Town or Street Name. You can also filter search results by block number and/or transaction prices as well as resale approval date. The results show the floor of the transacted flat, age of the building, resale price and transaction approval date.

These prices also include Cash Over Valuation (COV):

"The price information shown in this e-service is based on the actual transacted prices declared by the buyers and sellers. For cases where the resale flats were transacted above valuations, the resale prices would include the cash amount above valuations. Please note that there could also be resale flats that were transacted at or below market valuations."
Source : HDB 
Actually HDB recently went one step further and started to provide HDB Centralised Map Services which provides resale transacted prices within 500 metres from any HDB Block or DBSS Site/Project and resale transacted prices for all flat types in each block. The map application also displays other information on the block such as EIP/SPR Quota, Upgrading Programmes and Distance Enquiry for CPF Housing Grant.

HDB Centralized Map Services displaying resale transaction prices within 500 meter of selected block by flat type.

Monday, January 2, 2012

HDB resale flat prices rised 1.7% in Q4 2011


Housing Development Board, HDB, has just released the "Flash Estimate of 4th Quarter 2011 Resale Price Index" and is 190.4 now, an increase of 1.7% over 3rd Quarter 2011. Although the increase is lower than the 3.8% seen in the previous quarter, it is still a significant rise.[1]

The index was 172 at the end of 2010 so the year-on-year increase is around 10.6% in 2012. The price index doubled since 2006 in just 5 years.

Between 2001 and 2008, the average number of HDB units completed fell to 8,260 units per annum from the average of about 25,700 units per annum between 1991 and 2000 (See Forecasting the future of Singapore property market). This under-supply situation is the key reason for the continuous HDB resale price rise. Although HDB now responsed to under-supply situation with 25,000 units in 2011 and plans to release 25,000 more in 2012, these units will be completed in 2-3 years and will require 5 years of occupancy before entering the resale market.

Supply crunch is also fueled by the cooling measures of August 2010:

"Beyond the historical under-supply of HDB flats in the 2001 to 2010 decade, some of the key reasons for the supply crunch lie in policies that have been effected in recent times. As part of the cooling measures implemented in August last year, it was mandated that resale flat buyers who are private property owners had to dispose of their private homes within six months of purchasing their HDB resale unit. In addition, the Minimum Occupation Period (MOP) of non-subsidised flats was increased from three to five years. This means that HDB upgraders might be reluctant to sell their HDB flats because it may be more difficult for them to buy a HDB flat in the future, said DWG’s Mr Lee. These upgraders will be looking to rent out their HDB flats, resulting in less supply of resale flats."

But the price index only tells a part of the story. There is also a Cash-Over-Valuation (COV), money paid in cash to the seller over the valuation of the HDB flat. And COV has fallen $5000 just for the month of December 2011 to $25,000 - $40,000. "COV are likely to remain soft and could dip $10,000 to $15,000 in the coming six to nine months" says PropNex Chief Executive Mohammed Ismail.[2]
Source : HDB
Since supply side crunch has no magic and fast cure, demand side measures are the ones which can make difference. For example, In 2011, HDB has offered 28,043 HDB flats 25,196 of which were new flats under the Build-To-Order (BTO) system. For 2012, HDB plans to release 25,000 BTO flats in the various towns/estates. This month, in January 2012, 3,890 BTO flats in Choa Chu Kang, Punggol, Sengkang and Tampines will be offered for sale.[1]

Income ceiling is also raised from 8,000 to 12,000 to enable more Singaporeans to buy new BTO flats rather than going to resale flat market. One another measure is also reducing the Singapore PR intake, which has slowed significantly in the last 3 years and expected to slow further. Singapore PRs are eligible to purchase HDB from resale market and many had done so to avoid paying ultra high rents to the same flats.

[1] - Flash Estimate of 4th Quarter 2011 Resale Price Index
[2] - Resale flat prices still up, but at slower pace