Sunday, November 6, 2011

Private property supply in pipeline supply reaches record high in Q3 2011

The Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) has recently released the real estate statistics for 3rd Quarter 2011. According to URA private property supply reaches record high of 76,255 uncompleted private residential units in the last quarter, 7.2% increase in just one quarter (compared to 71,111 units of Q2-2011). URA says that 76,255 units are the highest ever recorded since such data is available in 1999.

39,111, or 51 per cent, of these units have not find a buyer yet. In the 3 months of Q3-2011, developers has launched 4,673 uncompleted private residential units for sale, and 4,192 of these uncompleted private residential units were sold.

URA also releases the estimates of number of units receiving Temporary Occupancy Permit (TOP) in this and following year quarterly. And as Ku Swee Yong from International Property Advisers wrote in Today, the estimates are revised upwards again:

"The expected supply of homes getting the Temporary Occupation Permit (TOP) for this year and next year increased yet again, surpassing previous forecasts; and the vacancy total of non-landed properties at 12,975 units is just shy of that during the Lehman Brothers crisis peak in 3Q2009 at 13,084 units.[1]

URA Supply Estimates
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Q42010 estimated no of units receiving TOP 8,430 8,116 17,565 21,680 22,518
Q32010 estimated no of units receiving TOP 10,889 12,043 12,882 20,550 34,373
Change 2,459 3,927 -4,683 -1,130 11,855
%Change 29.2% 48.4% -26.7% -5.2% 52.6%

If you look at the table above, the total number of increase for 2011 and 2012 is 6,386 units while total number of decrease in number of units for 2013 and 2014 is 5,813. It looks like developers are rushing out to  complete units before global economic outlook deters more.

"The huge supply hitting the market will arrive earlier than official forecasts. In the interests of operational efficiency, including collecting progress payments, developers and construction companies are generally ahead of planned schedules, especially for projects that are by and large fully sold. We believe that, over the next few quarters, expected TOP numbers will continue to grow for 2012 and 2013 stock. We have revised our estimates for completions in 2012 to 2015."[1]

[1] Supplies, supplies, supplies!

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